Methodology

It’s not a black box.
It’s a defensible system.

Provalytics was built for a world where cookies are disappearing, spikes no longer tell the full story, and finance needs an answer it can trust. Our methodology combines Bayesian inference with Seemingly Unrelated Regressions to measure true incremental impact across channels, outcomes, and time.

Bayesian + SUR Core modeling framework
Explainable Outputs finance can defend
Cross-validated Tested against real outcomes
How the model works

Built to isolate incremental lift, not just correlation.

At the core of Provalytics is a machine learning framework designed to measure what marketing actually drives. We analyze the natural variation already present in your campaigns — changes in spend, timing, creative, placement, daypart, and channel mix — and use that variation to identify what is truly moving outcomes.

Bayesian + SUR modeling

We use Hierarchical Bayesian estimation with Seemingly Unrelated Regressions so multiple KPIs and media variables can be modeled together, instead of forcing a narrow channel-by-channel view.

Natural experiments, not guesswork

The model detects thousands of micro-experiments already occurring in your campaigns — variations in flighting, creative, station, placement, spend, and sequencing — to isolate incremental impact from baseline behavior.

Built for today’s media reality

Whether media runs live, asynchronously, on-demand, on-site, or through marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart, and Chewy, Provalytics is designed to measure what legacy tags, cookies, and spikes can no longer see.

Validation

How we validate the answer

A model is only useful if it holds up against reality. Provalytics validates accuracy against your actual business outcomes, not just model fit in isolation.

We use cross-validation, holdout logic, and real-world response comparisons to ensure the model is measuring signal, not noise. The output is granular, explainable, and designed for teams that need to make and defend budget decisions.

See how it works on your data
Methodology snapshot
Incremental Lift = f(Media, Timing, Creative, Channel Mix, Carryover, Saturation, Synergy)
Cross-validated against your outcomes Accuracy is checked against actual performance, not abstract model fit alone.
Granular, explainable output Understand performance by channel, creative, placement, station, program, or daypart.
Built for finance as much as marketing The goal is one answer teams can use for planning, reforecasting, and investment decisions.
R² 0.97 Typical model fit
MAPE 1.78% Typical forecast error
K = 5 Cross-validation folds
12 months Minimum recommended history
Why it matters

Built for a world where legacy attribution falls apart.

Consumers do not move in neat, trackable paths anymore. They stream, browse, compare, delay, buy off-site, and convert across marketplaces and devices. Provalytics was built to measure that reality — not an older one.

01

No reliance on cookies or tags

Measurement does not break when pixels disappear, browsers restrict tracking, or marketplace data remains closed.

02

Linear and digital measured together

CTV, linear, radio, podcast, retail media, and digital can be evaluated side by side inside one consistent framework.

03

Outputs teams can actually use

Not black-box averages. Not static MMM reports. Clear, actionable insights tied to how campaigns are actually planned, bought, and managed.

Free Download

The 2026 Attribution Playbook.

A practical field guide for proving impact when the cookie is gone, the click is weaker, and finance needs one answer. Includes examples from retail, CPG, financial services, and subscription brands, plus the frameworks behind a finance-ready measurement rollout.

  • Why spike-based TV attribution broke — and what replaced it
  • The halo effect on Amazon, Walmart, Target, and Chewy
  • How to align Finance and Marketing on one source of truth
  • A practical framework for validating incremental lift
Download the playbook
2026
Attribution Playbook

Proving Impact in a Cookie-less, Click-less World

A field guide for marketing leaders who need to defend every dollar.

Ready to see it?

Stop guessing.
Start proving.

2-3X ROAS accuracy vs. last click · Zero cookies · No IT lift, no site tagging